David Morey 
Even those players who are fully aware of the wrongness of the approach to gambling as a way of making money, still strive to win money as often as possible, and not be satisfied with only emotions in exchange for lost funds. However, most BC clients act impulsively – they bet on the one with the “highest name” without studying the latest statistics and latest news. An even worse approach is to always bet only on your own.
But even with a serious approach to data analysis, it may be that there is no one to bet on this weekend. If the pirate carefully follows only one or two competitions, and there are equal pairs, the winner will have to be guessed. In an unpredictable confrontation, the odds of victory will be high, but we want to win – even if not so much, but with a higher probability. In this case, we will be saved by betting on the total, and we will now tell you how to bring the previous statistics of the opponents under such a bet.
If you want to test the strategy in action, switch to melbet.
Calculation Principle
Any team can play 3-3 today and 0-0 next week, and vice versa. A lot depends on who is today’s opponent, what is the form of the performers, whether the coach is able to fundamentally change tactics for the sake of one game. But certain trends are more often observed: a bad defense will constantly bring, and a good one will dry up successfully, an excellent attack will delight with a large number of goals, and a weak one will disappoint. A disciplined team will focus on defense and it is better not to attack in order not to miss a counterattack, a “cheerful” one will play by itself and give to others.
When deciding which total to bet on, you should take into account the previous statistics. We believe that it is enough to keep in mind the four previous matches of each of the opponents (not between each other, but with any opponents), and here is why:
- the result of only the previous match is not enough – it may be an exception to the trend described above and not reflect the real style of play;
- four matches is a long enough series to take into account that exclusions or experiments can be two in a row, but not stretched so as not to distort the results of the evaluation due to the same form that the team may have recently gained or lost;
- the history of personal meetings between the two teams is not taken into account at all, since the information may be outdated – transfers have taken place, the coach has changed, the leaders have aged, and so on.
Simply looking at the previous four results without applying mathematics does not give us a clear understanding of how to bet on the total. The average fan will still primarily see wins and losses, make amends for many goals conceded by a strong opponent, or see one goal scored against them as an achievement. It doesn’t concern us – it doesn’t matter whether the team wins or loses, whether it scores more or concedes, as long as there is always a lot or a little of both.
The highest coefficients on the total in football, as a rule, give more or less than 2.5 – we take it as a basis. As preliminary statistics, we use four previous matches of the teams – eight meetings are obtained (if another face-to-face game is played during this period, its result is credited to both opponents). Now we calculate points for each confrontation according to the following principle:
- for matches with a total of more than 2.5 we count +0.5 points, for less than 2.5 we give -0.5;
- if both teams scored (even 1:1), we count +0.75 points, if only one (even with a total above 2.5) -0.75;
- the first two points apply to each of the games – that is, the score 0:0, 1:0 or 2:0 gets -1.25 points, for 3:0 and other dry defeats we give -0.25 (total scored, but both not scored), 1:1 is +0.25 (less than 2.5, but both scored), and 2:1, 2:2, 3:2 and more is +1.25;
- add up all the points – and get a sum from -10 (both teams are always very dry) to +10 (opponents rush to attack, completely forgetting about defense).
How to Apply the Result of Calculations?
It is logical to assume that for very many confrontations, the evaluation according to the given system will still be closer to zero than to extreme positive or negative values. At the same time, the bet on the total in the match, the preliminary analysis of which gave 0 points, is an absolute risk: both teams in it can play both more than 2.5 and less than with approximately equal chances.
If we consider the total of exactly 2.5, then experts advise to start from the same number in the estimation of calculations. So:
- if the match has gained at least +2.5 points, consider betting on the total more;
- if the pair scores -2.5 or even lower, your potential selection is a total less.
The probability of hitting the ball with the total increases depending on the closer the analysis result is to the extreme indicators. Simply put, a decision based on +2.5 or -2.5 remains risky, but +6 or – 6 is already a bold hint that the pair should pass. Accordingly, the player’s task is to analyze all (or only those of interest to him) matches in the tour in order to find out where, despite the parity of the pair, there is a bet option with a high probability of winning.
Does this Strategy Guarantee Success?
We love sports, especially football, precisely because of how unpredictable it is. No sports betting strategy guarantees a player guaranteed winnings, and not every time. In the end, the team that scored +10 according to the above system (scores a lot on its own and plays mediocre defense) can lose two attack leaders at once for a specific match, but the opponent’s attack will also turn out to be very weak – hence the seemingly unpredictable 0:0. The same can happen the other way around: a team that is traditionally dry can not meet the resistance of a weaker opponent and score three in the first half, and then relax, make a bunch of substitutions – and still miss one in return.
However, mathematics still somewhat increases the player’s chances of success and adds an argument in favor of making one or another bet on the total. Count the points, compare, follow the news of the teams – and you will win more often.
