Jryntorica Qysalind It’s now crunch time in the NBA roadshow. After a long – sometimes grueling – season that got underway in October, teams are in the hunt for glory in the Playoffs, which will take us all the way to June and the NBA Finals.
It is, most certainly, a time when we see a sports betting boom, as betting on the NBA Playoffs takes in huge volumes of money over the course of scores of games. But if you are going to have a wager, what should you look out for?
Outside of giving tips for this season’s Playoffs, we are going to cite some things to consider, universal rules, as such, which can apply to any NBA season:
1. Be Patient and See How Teams Adjust
Some teams will grow through the Playoffs, whereas some will look overawed by the pressure. As such, it is often worth seeing how teams do in the early rounds before wagering. This is especially relevant for inexperienced teams. A case in point this time around might be the San Antonio Spurs – brilliant in the regular season – but the young team might have to learn the ropes in the Playoffs. We’d keep an eye on them before making any firm decisions.
2. Late Season Form Matters
Ideally, you want to back teams that have gelled over March and April, bringing that form into the Playoffs. Again, we don’t want to make predictions, but a team like the Denver Nuggets fits the bill this time around. Denver won 12 straight to conclude the regular season, and that momentum could count for a lot.
3. Don’t Get Overconfident with Favorites
The best team always wins, right? Technically, yes, but it is so often the case in sports that the team backed at the start of the postseason fails to deliver. Right now, everyone is hot on the reigning champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, backing them to repeat. Yet, the odds are relatively short, and the value might be found elsewhere.
4. Home Advantage Only Counts for So Much
The seeding system in the NBA means that the higher seeds get to play the majority of games on their home turf, but this does not automatically lead to a series victory. Indeed, look out for teams that have been comfortable on the road during the regular season. And remember, it’s not quite the same as the NFL with home advantage; you’ll only get one extra game at home in each series.
5. Stats like Totals Can Change Dramatically
The Playoffs can be a different beast to the regular season. In the latter, teams won’t exactly give up, but you do tend to see a lot more blowouts. Playoff games tend to be naturally closer, more aggressive from buzzer to buzzer and slower paced. Studies have been done to demonstrate the difference, so factor that into your betting strategy.
6. Injuries Can Derail a Title Hunt
Last season, the Boston Celtics lost star player Jayson Tatum to an injury during the Playoffs. Now, it’s not certain that the Celtics would have won with him, but it did hurt the team’s bid for a second successive championship. The intensity of the Playoffs, coming at the end of a long season, can mean more injuries, so look for the teams with the roster depth to manage.
7. Beware Public Narratives
The Playoffs tend to attract casual bettors and casual punditry, bringing in the money and views of people who haven’t experienced the entirety of the regular season. As such, the narrative can be skewed, favoring the dogma of backing the big teams and well-known players. Stick to your own strategy, or at least take on board advice from those who know the league inside out. In short, ignore the noise.
