Shawn Bradley 
For successful long-term play in bookmakers, it is necessary to bet only on events with a positive mathematical expectation, that is, on so-called value markets. Valuable bets with an edge over the bookmaker allow earning over the long run. In this article, we will examine the main ways to find them and learn how to correctly identify their presence. However, it should be noted immediately that in sports betting, one of the important aspects is finding a reliable bookmaker who operates fairly and provides quality service. If you are still searching for such a company to play with, then try Melbet Mongolia download. This mobile application has everything you need for quality mobile betting.
What is a Value Bet?
A value bet is considered a bet whose odds are overstated by the bookmaker compared to the actual chances of this outcome. That is when the player’s subjective assessment of the probability of an event exceeds the bookmaker’s assessment. The value can be determined by the formula: the probability of the outcome according to the bettor’s calculations * odds > 1. The higher this value, the more profitable the bet.
Bookmakers strive to assess the probabilities of outcomes as accurately as possible, however, due to several factors, underestimated markets occasionally appear in the line:
- Mistakes by bookmakers in calculating odds due to incomplete data or the human factor.
- Technical error in the bookmaker’s line (an extremely rare occurrence).
- Sharp changes in odds due to an imbalance in accepting bets on one side of the market.
- Bookmaker deliberately inflates odds to attract bets on the less popular outcome.
Manual Search for Valuable Lines
By studying the statistics of the upcoming match, you can independently calculate approximate probabilities of outcomes and compare them with what the bookmaker offers. The deeper you delve into the specifics of the tournament/league and know the teams, the more accurately you can determine the odds. Then, using a known formula, you find valuable odds.
For calculations, it is convenient to use advanced metrics such as xG in football, additional tables in Excel, and other available resources with statistics. You can also study the history of head-to-head meetings between opponents, their current form, tournament motivation, and line-ups for the game.
Value Bet Scanners
Various free and paid scanner services exist for automated search of valuable bets. Some of them specifically monitor bookmaker lines for inflated odds, while others compare the odds of different bookmakers and find forks/values based on discrepancies in market assessments.
The most well-known value scanners are: OddsBoom, Oddsportal, BetCatcher, SureBetPro, and others. It is important to understand that their signals should be perceived only as hints for further in-depth analysis of the situation.
Alternative Methods
Another interesting method to find value is to track a sharp drop in odds for one of the outcomes of an event (dropping odds). This often occurs due to an imbalance in bets in the sportsbook. And at that brief moment, a valuable line may open up on the opposite outcome, which an experienced bettor can take advantage of.
Value can also be hidden in markets with arbitrage discrepancies between bookmakers. If both companies offer inflated odds for different outcomes of the same event, then one of them is definitely valuable. In addition, by studying unpopular tournaments and leagues, experienced handicappers can find valuable bets that are not seen by bookmaker analysts due to lack of information.
The Importance of Finding Value Bets
Regular earnings in bookmakers are possible only with bets having a positive mathematical expectation. Therefore, searching for valuable value bets is a mandatory condition for any successful bettor.
There are several main ways to find such markets:
- Independent analysis of statistics and calculation of probabilities of outcomes with subsequent comparison with bookmaker lines.
- Using value bet scanners and forks.
- Tracking sharp movements in the line and odds.
- Searching for bookmaker underestimations in unpopular tournaments and leagues.
By skillfully combining various methods of identifying valuable markets, bettors find it much easier to beat bookmakers over the long term. And an additional mathematical edge in the form of value significantly increases the chances of obtaining stable profits from bets.
